Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
