Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
